The "Bitmain Cycle": How they use us as exit liquidity (Forensic Analysis of Profitability)

Bitmain isn't just a hardware manufacturer; they are a market maker (and breaker). After analyzing releases from 2017 to 2026, a clear pattern emerges: They extract maximum value from the network first, then sell you the scrap metal.

Below is the forensic breakdown of the "Bait vs. Switch" profitability for every major release.

1. The "Hall of Shame" (Altcoin Rug Pulls)

These miners were sold with "God Mode" ROI projections that evaporated the moment the first batch landed.

Antminer D3 (Dash)

The Textbook Trap.

The Bait (July 2017): Pre-orders opened with a projected income of ~$200 USD / day.

The Switch (Nov 2017): By the time Batch 1 arrived, difficulty had spiked 1,000%.

Real Profit on Delivery: ~$10 USD / day.

The Scam Score: 10/10. (Thousands of users essentially bought expensive paperweights).

Antminer A3 (Siacoin)

The 10-Day Pump.

The Bait (Jan 17, 2018): Released "surprise" style. Projected income ~$450 - $500 USD / day.

The Switch (Jan 27, 2018): Just 10 days later, as units landed, income crashed.

Real Profit on Delivery: ~$20 - $40 USD / day.

The Scam Score: 9/10. (Insiders likely front-ran the launch; public buyers got wrecked).

Antminer B3 (Bytom)

The Market Manipulation Special.

The Bait (April 2018): Bytom (BTM) price magically doubled to ATH ($1.16) exactly on announcement day.

The Switch (May 2018): Hardware shipped, price instantly collapsed to $0.30.

Real Profit on Delivery: Negative (after electricity) for many within 60 days.

The Scam Score: 9/10. (Suspicious price correlation).

2. The "Modern" Era (2020–2026)

The strategy shifted from "crashing the coin" to "withholding the tech" until the last possible moment.

Antminer E9 (Ethereum)

The Merge Liquidation.

The Bait (April 2021): Announced as "Equivalent to 25 RTX 3080s" during peak ETH mining profitability.

The Switch (July 2022): Withheld for 15 months (while Bitmain likely mined with it). Sold to public just 8 weeks before The Merge.

Real Profit on Delivery: High for ~60 days, then $0 (Brick).

The Scam Score: 10/10. (Selling hardware for a dying network).

Antminer KS3 (Kaspa)

The Nuclear Option.

The Bait (May 2023): Early projections showed insane numbers—~$2,000 - $3,000 USD / day (at 8.3 TH/s).

The Switch (Aug 2023): Bitmain flooded the network. Difficulty went vertical.

Real Profit on Delivery: ~$60 - $80 USD / day (by early 2024).

The Scam Score: 7/10. (Still profitable, but the "Day 1" buyers paid $30k+ for a machine that lost 90% of its daily revenue power in months).

Antminer KA3 (Kadena)

The Centralizer.

The Bait (Sept 2022): 166 TH/s (5x powerful than competitors). Projected ~$70 - $80 USD / day.

The Switch: Bitmain likely strip-mined the 2021 KDA bull run (when KDA was $20+) with this tech secretly, then sold it when KDA was $1.50.

The Scam Score: 6/10. (Good hardware, but the release timing suggests they ate the best meals before inviting you to the table).

3. The Bitcoin "Futures" Trap (BTC)

They can't kill Bitcoin, so they kill your ROI by making you pay Bull Market prices for Bear Market delivery.

Antminer S19 XP (Bitcoin)

The Bait (Nov 2021): Bitcoin at $60k. Futures sold for $10,000 - $12,000 per unit.

The Switch (July-Sept 2022): Delivered when Bitcoin was $20k.

Real Profit on Delivery: Barely breakeven (depending on electric rate).

The Lesson: Never buy futures. You are financing their hedge.

If Bitmain announces a miner for a coin that has been "quiet" for years, do not buy it. It usually means they have found a way to exploit it and are looking for bagholders before the difficulty adjustment hits.

Good luck!

*Edit: some formatting issues

Miner	Coin	The Promise (At Announcement)	The Reality (At Delivery)	Drop %
D3	Dash	~$200 / day	~$10 / day	-95%
A3	Sia	~$500 / day	~$40 / day	-92%
KS3	Kaspa	~$2,500 / day (Hypothetical)	~$100 / day	-96%
E9	ETH	Huge ETH yields (pre-fork)c	2 months of life -> Brick	-100%
S19 XP	BTC	High ROI (at $60k BTC)	Low ROI (at $20k BTC)	-70% (Dollar Value)